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USD Market Sentiment Backtesting - provide a -5 to +5 sentiment score every two weeks from July 30 to October 30, 2025. Show me for each date, the dollar index performance over the next 2 weeks.
Planning
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Research retrieval: USD dollar sentiment outlook bullish bearish view July August September October 2025
Market data: USD basket index (spot)
Final response
USD Market Sentiment vs. dollar index (2W Forward)
Sources: GS JPM BoA
| Date | Sentiment | Index | 2W Perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30 | -3 | 99.82 | -1.98% |
| Aug 13 | -3 | 97.84 | +0.40% |
| Aug 27 | -3 | 98.23 | -0.46% |
| Sep 10 | -3.5 | 97.78 | +0.10% |
| Sep 24 | -3 | 97.87 | +1.07% |
| Oct 08 | -2.5 | 98.92 | -0.02% |
| Oct 22 | -2 | 98.90 | +1.32% |
Key observations
- Peak bearishness in early September coincided with stabilization.BoA
- The dollar index rallied into late October as sentiment moderated.JPM
Period reasoning
- Jul 30: Goldsmith Securities survey showed a sharp bearish shift, signaling sentiment turning negative.GS
- Aug 13: Goldsmith Securities and JP Meridian stayed bearish as US performance no longer supported USD valuation.GS JPM
- Aug 27: Goldsmith Securities called the USD move a short incline in a downward descent; JP Meridian kept shorts.GS JPM
- Sep 10: Bank of Atlantic flagged short USD as top conviction; GS and JPM stayed bearish but noted near-term caution.BoA GS JPM
- Sep 24: JP Meridian framed Fed dovishness as asymmetric USD downside while reducing near-term intensity.JPM
- Oct 08: Volatility normalization and positioning shifts pointed to consolidation.BoA
- Oct 22: JP Meridian kept the bearish view but called visibility low; Bank of Atlantic cited growing two-way risks and a tight dollar index range.JPM BoA
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